Example 1 Suppose
that we have 100 stocks whose returns we want to explain in terms of one
factor-the value factor. For a particular month, we collect returns for all 100
stocks as well as each stock's exposure to the value factor. Using these data,
we estimate the factor return F(t), which turns out to be 5 percent.7
Suppose that, for a particular stock, its exposure to the value factor is
measured to be two standard deviations8 (2 std) above the mean of
all stocks in some predefined universe of stocks; that is, B(t - 1)= 2
std for this stock. Using F(t), we can determine the change in the average
or expected stock return, given a change in exposure. In other words, we
can address the question, what is the return to an increased exposure to
stocks with high earnings-to-price values? It follows from Equation (20.2) that
AE[f(t)] = AB(t - l)E[F(t)] where AE[r(t)] and E[F(t)] represent
the expected change in stock return and the expected value of the factor
return, respectively. If we expect a particular stock's exposure to the value
factor to increase, say, 0.5 std-that is, the stock becomes more of a value
play-then the expected change in its stock return, given this change, is
AE[r(t)] = AB(t-l)F(t)
= 0.5 std x 0.05 (20.6)
= 250 basis points
In this example, F(t)
represents the return from an increase in the exposure to value stocks. To
see this, we can rewrite (20.6):
AE[m_
AB(t-l)
So, F(t) represents
the change in the average excess return for an increase (decrease) in exposure
to stocks with high earnings-to-price levels.
Example 2 Factor
returns are sometimes defined by first constructing a so-called
factor-mimicking portfolio (FMP). Simply put, an FMP is a portfolio whose
returns mimic the behavior of some underlying factor. There is a variety of
techniques available to construct FMPs. A simple way9 to build a
portfolio that mimics the behavior of, say, the value factor return works as
follows.
1. First, sort all
assets in your portfolio according to their E/P.
2.
Split the sorted assets into two groups. The first
group contains assets that fall in the top half of assets ranked by E/P. We
refer to these assets collectively as
7An
explanation of the factor return estimation procedures is provided in the
section on cross-sectional regressions later in the chapter.
Exposures are sometimes
normalized so that they are comparable. This normalization process will be discussed in more detail in the
section on standardizing exposures later in the chapter.
sThe
academic literature is replete with better ways to construct a factor-mimicking
portfolio.
Here, the example we provide is for expositional purposes only.